If Kosovo goes ahead and declares its independence this coming Sunday, violence could break out, the possibility of a confrontation between Russia and the West could happen. What form it would take seems uncertain at this point.

Serbia braces for new nation

Washington Times
By David R. Sands
February 15, 2008

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080215/FOREIGN/638668464/1003

Shop owners in Prizren hung Albanian flags yesterday as Kosovo prepares to declare independence from Serbia. Even supporters of the move say the process will be difficult, and the region is on guard for more diplomatic wrangling and even violence.

The world appears certain to get a new nation this weekend, but even the most ardent supporters of Kosovo — led by the United States — are uneasy about what will happen after the province formally declares its independence from Serbia.

Serbia, backed strongly by Russia, vows to fight the loss of what it considers the cradle of its culture, and the region is braced for more diplomatic wrangling and even violence.

Soren Jessen-Petersen, the Danish diplomat who was the U.N. special envoy to Kosovo from mid-2004 to mid-2006, backs independence but said he is uncertain about the outcome.
"No doubt the process is going to be messy, it's going to be difficult," said Mr. Jessen-Petersen, now a visiting scholar at the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace.

"In such a fragile environment right now, it doesn't take a lot to spark an incident that can spiral out of control," he said.

The formal declaration by Kosovo's government, dominated by ethnic Albanians, is expected Sunday. The United States and major powers of the European Union including Britain, France and Germany will recognize the new state quickly. The interim government has appropriated $15 million to mark the day, but plans to keep the celebration low-key for fear of provoking the province's unhappy Serbian minority.

Officials from the 17,000-strong NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo, which includes about 1,400 U.S. troops, insist they are prepared to deal with any incidents.

"We are intensifying our state of alert and activities to monitor the situation, using intelligence means, more patrols and greater visibility," Col. Bertrand Bonneau, spokesman for the international force, said in Pristina.

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